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Posted: Monday September 15, 1998 11pm EST

Myanmar economy in a shambles amid political tensions: analysts


Sun 13 Sep 98 - 04:20 GMT

BANGKOK, Sept 13 (AFP) - Myanmar's economy is in a shambles, with its already basic infrastructure rapidly deteriorating, food stocks depleting and foreign investors withdrawing at a rapid pace, analysts warn.

Electricity to some areas of the country have been cut off and in the capital of Yangon power is cut for anywhere from six to 12 hours in certain districts.

Authorities have detained currency traders in a bid to stop the kyat sliding to new lows, while political tensions have destabilised the isolated state's precarious economy, the analysts said.

International opposition to Myanmar's junta has discouraged foreign investment and compunded the severity of the problems, they added.

"There isn't really anything going for Burma at this stage," said one foreign diplomat in Yangon specialising in economic matters, using the former name for Myanmar.

"Everything has gone downhill, or at least not improved at all. They put a lot of hope on tourism, but that's not exactly doing well. Besides the general problems of visiting somewhere like Myanmar, the political developments aren't conducive to foreign tourism."

Tension between the junta and its opponents has escalated in recent months and dozens of opposition members were reportedly detained last week.

The junta has also detained some 40 currency traders in Yangon in a bid to bolster the beleaguered kyat, which is at new lows amid a devastating regional economic crisis.

The traders, licensed by the country's junta in a de facto endorsement of the currency black market currency, were held in the hope that reduced transactions would prevent the artifically pegged unit slipping further, diplomats in Yangon added.

The kyat was trading around 360 to the dollar on Yangon's black market Friday but earlier crashed through the 400 mark in some parts of the country.

The black market rate was around 150 to the dollar before Asia became embroiled in an economic crisis last July. The official rate is six kyat to the dollar but is almost totally ignored.

Hundreds of power generators have been imported by Myanmar in recent weeks to counter the electricity shortage, according to official sources, but with starting prices at about 500 dollars, few in the impoverished country can afford to buy them.

The power shortage is widely believed to be due to a drop in the water table because of a lack of rain, as well as shortages of parts and other problems at electricity plants.

"It is mainly because of water shortage and also due to some technical problems," a junta spokesman recently said.

"This is not a permanent problem and will be resolved sooner or later."

The lack of rainfall associated with the El Nino weather pattern last year had also caused food shortgaes in some areas, driving up the prices for basic commodities. But diplomats in Yangon said recent heavy rain may abate the problem and good rice crops were now expected.

The Asian economic crisis now in its second year has further shaken fragile Myanmar, with many foreign investment projects cancelled or put on hold and some big spending foreign companies withdrawing from the country altogether.

"The biggest problem is with the hotels, which are mainly foreign projects," said another western diplomat in Yangon.

"There were too many new hotels to start with, and now there are not many tourists or business visitors, they are really suffering."

"I've heard several have applied to the government to be allowed to cease operations, but apparently that has been refused and they have to continue racking up the losses under the terms of their licence agreements."

The junta has acknowledged some economic difficulties and lays much of the blame on opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi and her National League for Democracy, which has campaigned for international boycotts of Myanmar as well as other trade sanctions.

The opposition, which won 1990 polls by a landslide but has never been allowed to take power, has also urged tourists to stay away from the country until the junta accepts change.

AFP 1998


Generators can be seen everywhere in Rangoon; a result of the electricity shortages throughout the country